A new Bitcoin price call is floating around on X, and this one is a biggie. Egrag Crypto is now backing a $500,000 target for Bitcoin.

Half a million.

Your group chat will likely be flooding with rockets in the coming minutes—so here’s the quick lowdown: This isn’t about a market breaking new ground on a particular story. There isn’t a huge buying story to tell about this space, either. Instead, this is largely a technical analysis play, and all about the monthly moving average (MA) ribbon that’s been compressing and is now beginning to diverge once again.

Boring. That’s a chart pattern that some technical traders take very seriously because it has frequently appeared in the markets ahead of major turning points.

The “moving average ribbon,” explained like you’re not stuck in 2017

A moving average is simply a smoother line drawn on top of the price action that visualises where the average price is heading over time. It smooths out some of the minor fluctuations, making it easier to determine the prevailing trend.

When you stack several moving averages together, you get a ribbon—a bundle of lines that forms a kind of zone. Traders watch that zone because it can act like support, resistance or both.

a soft floor (price bounces off it), or
a hard ceiling (price keeps getting rejected).

The ribbon is composed of 33 EMA, 66 MA, 80 EMA, and 100 EMA lines on the monthly chart. Slower monthly signals are often looked down on by traders who focus on the shorter-term movements; however, the source of Egrag’s system lies far beyond the everyday trading range.

Those lines are compressing – they’re converging. When a market compresses for an extended period of time, it usually leads to an even greater move – up or down.

“Fractal” sounds like math class, but it’s basically “the market is rhyming”

Egrag names this setup a “ribbon fractal”. The term fractal, we all know, is a structure that has repeating patterns and which, when trading, is a previous structure that repeats itself in the following structure.

Not identical. More like a familiar chorus.

He reminds us of other times in a cycle when #Bitcoin traded near the ribbon, then blasted off after breaking above. Once the price reclaimed the ribbon and stays above, the market tends to switch from slow motion to higher speed.

And here’s the reasoning from the report on why the analyst is bullishly disposed toward the Bitcoin price: And so Bitcoin remains above the ribbon cluster, which has been above the underlying average, in each of the previous cycles – thus far at least the “strength of the trend has continued beyond the initial sign of a roll over” in the price. Crypto is full of surprises however so keep an eye on this. A pretty chart can turn into an ugly one very quickly.

$150K first, then the headline number

So, the $500K target is getting a lot of attention and that’s reasonable but it’s also important to remember that the path to that level isn’t straight up only.

From past bull runs, Egrag thinks that the midpoint or the “intermediate target” for this bull run could be $150,000. If the bull run pushes through and the bull run continues to stretch like it has in the past, the ultimate target could be $500,000.

In this framework, the climb is more like:

push,
cool off,
push again,
then maybe a bigger sprint.

That rhythm should be very familiar to you if you’ve ever lived through even a single real Bitcoin bull run.

The calendar angle: 2026 and late 2028

The forecast also adds timing. Two windows are highlighted:

October 2026 as a major waypoint if the structure continues developing

late Q3 / early Q4 2028 as another possible convergence point

He notes election cycles in the context of macro attention and market structure potentially lining up around this time. I wouldn’t make any promises regarding that, but nor was this a complete crapshoot. Large trends do tend to concentrate around large events – political and liquidity-related in nature.

Quick reality check

This is a call that’s better illustrated on a map than honoured as a promise. The ribbon is an “objective” in the sense that it is determined by formulas that are not open to debate, but that does not make it invincible.

Still, if Bitcoin acts as it has in bull market expansions in the past, a wild target won’t be far off from the mean. And there’s just no way to prepare for the fact that Bitcoin doesn’t really act in reasonable ways.

Bitcoin to $500K? This chart nerd argument is back—and it’s oddly specific

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