Bitcoin’s pullback since its October 2025 peak might feel significant, but if past cycles are anything to go by, the market could still be far from its true bottom.

That’s the view of crypto analyst Greeny, who says the current downturn is tracking closely with historical patterns that have defined Bitcoin’s biggest bear markets over the past decade.

A Familiar Timeline Is Playing Out

Looking back, Bitcoin rarely bottoms quickly after a major peak.

The 2013–2015 cycle took roughly 410 days to reach its low. The 2017–2018 bear market lasted about 363 days, while the decline after the 2021 top stretched to around 376 days. On average, that’s just over a year of downside before a real bottom forms.

In comparison, the current cycle is still relatively young. Bitcoin is only about five months removed from its October high, which suggests, at least based on history, that the process may still have a long way to run.

The Drop So Far May Not Be Enough

Another detail stands out: past crashes were much deeper.

Bitcoin lost around 93% of its value in 2011, 85% in 2015, and about 77% after the 2021 bull run. Against that backdrop, the current drawdown, roughly 42% from its peak above $126,000, doesn’t look extreme.

That doesn’t guarantee a bigger fall ahead, but it does leave room for further downside, especially if the market continues to follow previous patterns.

Greeny does acknowledge that things are not identical this time. Institutional demand and broader adoption could soften the blow compared to earlier cycles. Still, in terms of structure and timing, the market appears to be behaving in a very familiar way.

The Hard Part Might Come After the Bottom

Even if Bitcoin finds a floor later this year or in 2026, history suggests the recovery won’t be immediate.

Previous cycles were followed by long, frustrating accumulation phases. After the 2015 bottom, Bitcoin moved sideways for more than a year. Similar ranges developed after the 2018 and 2022 lows, each lasting roughly 18 months before a new uptrend took hold.

If that pattern repeats, the real test for investors may not just be the decline but the slow, uneventful period that follows it.

No “V-Shaped” Comeback

One of the clearest takeaways from past cycles is that Bitcoin doesn’t snap back quickly after major peaks.

According to Greeny, a fast, V-shaped recovery is something the market has simply never delivered. Instead, bottoms tend to form gradually, followed by long consolidation before momentum returns.

Based on historical averages, he places a potential bottom sometime in late 2026 or even later. A full recovery cycle could then stretch well into 2027.

What It Means for the Market

The current correction may feel heavy, but in the context of Bitcoin’s history, it may still be early.

For traders looking for a quick turnaround, that’s not great news. But for longer-term participants, it’s a reminder of how Bitcoin typically moves: sharp rises, deep corrections, and long periods of patience in between.

If this cycle continues to follow the script, the next real opportunity may not come quickly — but it will likely come after the market has fully worked through this phase.

Bitcoin Crash: History Suggests Decline Isn't Over

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