Bitcoin Is Pressing a Key Level — But This Still Isn’t a Clean Break Yet

Bitcoin’s back near $75K, and on paper, that looks strong.

Two weeks of steady recovery, momentum picking up, no immediate rejection. But if you step back a bit, this isn’t a clear breakout — not yet. It’s more like price has walked right into a level that’s been stopping it for months… and now we’re waiting to see if it actually gets through.

This level matters more than it looks

The current area — roughly $74K to $75K — isn’t just another resistance.

It lines up with the top of the descending channel that’s been in place since the February breakdown. At the same time, the 100-day moving average is sitting right there as well. Price has been rejected around this region before, so it’s not surprising to see some hesitation again.

What’s different this time is that Bitcoin didn’t arrive here weak. It’s been grinding higher, not spiking — and that usually gives a move a bit more credibility.

Still, until it actually holds above this zone, it’s just another test.

Momentum is better… but not decisive

One thing that stands out is the RSI.

On the daily, it’s pushed into the high 60s. That’s the strongest reading since before the February drop. So there’s clearly more underlying demand than in previous attempts.

But it’s also not extreme. There’s no “blow-off” signal here, which means the market still has room to move either way.

In other words, momentum is supportive — but it’s not forcing the breakout.

What would actually change the structure?

This is where it gets pretty straightforward.

If Bitcoin can close and hold above roughly $75K–$80K, then the structure starts to shift. At that point, you’re no longer looking at a market making lower highs — you’re looking at something that’s breaking out of that pattern.

And once that happens, the next obvious area comes in around $88K–$90K, where the 200-day moving average sits.

But that’s conditional. Without confirmation, it’s just potential.

If it fails, the downside is clear

If price gets rejected here again, there’s not much ambiguity.

First level to watch is around $71K, which has acted as short-term support. Below that, you’re back into the mid-range — around $67K — and if things get messy, the broader support sits down near $60K–$62K.

That’s the zone buyers defended before. If the market revisits it, the tone probably changes.

Lower timeframes look okay… but that’s normal

On the 4-hour chart, the structure still looks constructive.

Bitcoin’s been moving inside a mild upward channel since the February lows. Nothing aggressive, just steady higher lows.

Right now it’s pushing into the $74K–$76K area, and RSI is hovering around the 60 level. That usually means there’s still room for a push higher.

But short-term structure can flip quickly. We’ve seen that more than once in this range.

The more interesting part is off the chart

What’s quietly supporting the market is the exchange supply trend.

Bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped to around 2.68 million BTC, which is low compared to recent years. It’s been trending down for a while now, even during the correction.

That doesn’t push price up by itself — but it does change how the market reacts when demand shows up.

Less available supply tends to make moves sharper. Not immediately, but when momentum returns.

So where does that leave things?

Right now, Bitcoin isn’t clearly bullish or bearish.

It’s testing a level that should decide the next move, but hasn’t yet.

There’s enough strength to suggest this breakout could stick — but not enough confirmation to rely on it.

And that’s probably the honest read.

Final thought

This kind of setup — tight range, improving momentum, reduced supply — usually doesn’t last forever.

But the direction? That still depends on what happens right here.

Not next week. Not next month.

Right here.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Here’s Why the Next Few Days Will Be Crucial for BTC

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